NASCAR at Dover odds, key stats, bets to consider: Three drivers to fade in Monday’s matchups

There’s not any course in NASCAR like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete track in Delaware includes high banks along with multiple grooves, like Bristol’s half-mile design but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a exceptional monitor, but outcomes from Bristol should be taken into consideration, in addition to tracks that have used the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct bundle this year (more on this below).
It does not appear to matter where NASCAR races this past season, Kyle Busch has been one of those top-3 favorites, also he is the No. 1 power-rated catalyst for oddsmakers. Busch isn’t only directing the Cup Series in victories (three) this year, but his 10 straight top-10 finishes to begin the season has just been achieved by four other motorists, rather than since Morgan Shepherd at 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and tough to fade considering he’s 17 top-10s, including 12 top-5s, in his final 28 series starts at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 has been postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, a week’s winner at Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson were the only two drivers to get their futures chances to win the Cup Series championship corrected this week. Both motorists are worth fading in the matchups (listed below), however.
Elliott is the harder market believing he is the most recent winner at the Monster Mile and has five top-5 endings in six string races at Dover, but Chevrolet has been really disappointing this season out of the superspeedways and we love to fade drivers off wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race in the Cup level since the 2017 fall race in Richmond, proceeded from 20/1 to 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race at Dover sitting beyond the playoff standings at 21st. Talladega’s crash marked the third time in six races Larson has shattered from a race. Other results during this span include a 12th-place revealing at Fontana, 18th-place at Martinsville and 19th at Bristol.
Dover rules package, recent results
For the fifth time this season, Cup drivers will race using an engine-producing 750-horsepower and no aero ducts. The four previous races were Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, together with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski top 446 of 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 autumn: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 fall: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 autumn: Martin Truex, Jr..
Odds to win Gander RV 400 in Dover
Opening odds provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups in Dover
Opening possibilities Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Brad KESELOWSKI +120
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR at Dover stakes Opening odds provided by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We mentioned fading Elliott over and also our pick to beat him is Hamlin, who’s enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth all four races with Sunday’s bundle and has five top-10 endings in the last six Dover races, such as a runner-up last fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex includes five top-10s and four top-5s in the previous six Dover races, leading 387 laps in that moment. Truex also finished second at Phoenix on this package and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. Even though Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he’s been 19th in Phoenix, 18th at Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time winner Johnson contributes to the site of his latest success, where he’s the sport’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. But Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has struggled the last two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favourite track, and he is averaging a 6.7 complete over four starts. The Mexico native possesses the fourth-best typical running position among active drivers at Dover and contains the third-most laps at the top 15.