BIG MARLEY’S UFC 231 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to pursue this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favorite competitions to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a good quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest cash game punt of all time at $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and if we’re getting 5-rounds out of JJ using the striking volume she puts out then we have a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At the price tag she lets you pay up for a few heavy favorites and if we could get 4 other areas to win with a ~40-point reduction from JJ within our lineup then we will be sitting very pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this fight. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets hauled out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes in least one 10-point knock down. If this can be from the 1st round, then you’re already at 100-points even if it is merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than enough to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can’t have a lot of time in the game left. I think we function together with the favored here and toss into our GPP lineups and await the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I believe he’s a live underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he has never knocked out anybody, so I think we have a solid flooring here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing since I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and may win a decision with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent precision, and if he’s becoming bogged up on the feet I’m sure he will be going for much greater than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and that I think he has a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week , but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I do not think she can win, since she for certain can, and I think she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we’d require a finish from her in this fight to get 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll want FightMetric to count all of her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points and that was contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here then that still wouldn’t be sufficient here to put her in the winning lineup in her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups that Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a win it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below: